I believe Trump has a fantastic shot to win the election this year.  Trump is a wild card and he could self implode, but at this moment, I believe the numbers work out for him.  A lot of you out there are thinking “But BTP! Trump is losing by 7 points in most national polls!”  I do NOT think Trump is going to win the popular vote.  I think he will get crushed into oblivion in places like California, but he will win the electorate.

Polling is not an ironclad process to predict elections.  A large percentage of this election is going to be decided by voter turnout.  Voter turnout is not 100% accounted for in the polling, Pew does good work on this subject.  The key is for Trump to not antagonize people to the point where they are motivated to affect their lives to prevent him from being President.  Trump has extremely energized voters and Clinton has very lackluster support because the party doesn’t have a better option.  Trashing Trump is also the currently trending thing to do, so I believe a lot of his voters are shamed into hiding.  I think a very large portion of Clinton “supporters” are going to stay at home and I think Trump is actually going to gain on his numbers.

1-empty-hillary-clinton-rally
trump-rally-michigan

A very apt example of the Trump (In Michigan, a potential swing state) and Clinton campaigns (In the liberal stronghold that is NYC, and there are some reports of Clinton stocking the audiences with the few that did show up) can be gathered from these 2 photos.  Trump makes people want to vote for him, not against another person or for a policy.  Trump is helped when the media rushes to discount every single Trump exaggeration and is complicit is adding to HRC’s rally attendance.  This is why people get so aggravated and galvanized, especially by the “lyin’ media.”

There are more than 5 thousand people in that parking lot for Trump, but I know that it isn’t 15,000 more.  Could Trump be lying? Maybe…  but he most likely just read the turnstile numbers.  I believe this because there are football stadiums I see that have a capacity of 70,000 reporting that 100,000 people attended the game.  Hillary can’t even fill a small venue that is in her “home state” and is a liberal stronghold.  I believe this will come to light in the elections.

You can’t even rely on google to give you a fair shake on the candidates.  Straight out of House of Cards, Hillary is only getting auto-completed with good results.  Google responded with “We don’t auto-complete negative things.”  If you searched “Donald Trump is a rac” the first autocomplete was “a racist” so that was a complete lie (it has since been changed, I checked when the story first broke though).  The more these stories happen, the more supporters Trump will gain.

If you remember 2008, a ton of people were called racists for saying Obama only won because of black voters having a racial bias for him.  Now, they are saying that Trump is only getting white male voters (#ThatsNotRacist), which is actually untrue.
if_the_2016_presidential_election_were_being_held_today-_trump_clinton_chartbuilder_f0ced302f87f62e9dbf2c3c8eaf6a091-nbcnews-ux-2880-1000
This is a poll of white people only, and the the results show 50/40 for Trump for both white people and white men.  This is no significant difference and lines up with previous elections which were decided on similar ideas about policy.  Although some people say it is because of sexism that white men vote for Trump.

For comparison, democrats usually get about 85% of the black vote, 60% of the Hispanic vote, and 56% of the Asian vote.  Obama got 95% of the black vote, 67% of the Hispanic vote, and 62% of the Asian vote.  These numbers aren’t the only reason why he was propelled to victory.  Voter turnout surged at unprecedented levels in the 2008 elections…  Except for white people.
2009-electorate-02
So if there were these racists that were determined to keep Obama from getting elected because of “White Supremacy,” where were they?  Why did every minority turnout surge and increase the democratic lean significantly?  Was it just because he did such a good job energizing voters?  Or was it that he energized voters because he was black?  Needless to say, I believe all of these voters are not going to show up for Hillary.

hispanic-2012-11-07-latino-vote-00-01
Trump says he does, “Great with Hispanics!”  Well he does about the same as other Republican Presidential candidates, he polls at around 20-30%.  This is not “great” but it is not a deal breaker.  Hispanics voters do not have that much of a presence in the all important swing states.  I believe that he will fall at around 32% for Hispanics due to his reinforcement of legal immigration, he energizes those who immigrated here legally and Hillary sticks to platitudes.

Trump does the best among Republicans in recent memory with black people.  There is one poll (SurveyUSA) that shows him as high as 25%, but I will take that as an outlier.  Most polls show Trump between 8-12% for black people, which would be very high for a Republican (Bush got 11%).  I am again going to state that I believe Trump will end up at around 18% with blacks due to his turnouts against Hillary.

The battleground states are the reason why I am confident.  Every major battleground (Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio) is an absolute dead heat in polling.  I believe Trump will win every single state with a polling average within 4 points.  That is not to say he can’t win others, I am just confident in those states.  If that is true, then Trump would be sitting on 288 and Clinton would be sitting on 250 with the magic number being 270.  If Pennsylvania were to fall to Clinton, it would go 268 to Trump and 270 to Clinton.  Trump would be helped if he held on to all of his leaning states (will be tough) and managed to steal NJ, most polls have this between 4-8 points at the moment.
qeeox

The story of this election will be whether or not Trump can energize people to vote against him.  Hillary does not have any significant enthusiastic following.  People voted for her in the primary because Bernie, although a great guy, had horrible policies and was a socialist.  Bernie energized young voters who had no idea how the economy worked.  Trump will have his followers show up to vote but I think Hillary will have a record low turnout (keep in mind that there are more idi-I mean Democrats than Republicans).  So BTP expects Trump (at the moment) to eek out an electoral college victory and lose the popular vote.

Advertisements